Financial Opinion and Insights

Six Tips for Surviving Challenging Markets

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Here are six tips to help cope with challenging market environments:

1. Stay Engaged

When you sell an investment simply because it has declined in value,  it becomes impossible to benefit when it rebounds.  The same is true of the broad market in general.  Many of these major upside moves can happen quickly, often in just a few days.  To avoid missing these key days, you may want to consider staying invested and avoid panic selling. Consider this hypothetical example furnished to us by the folks at Principal Financial Group:

An individual who was invested in the S&P 500 from January 2, 1991, until December 31, 2010 would have turned a $10,000 investment into $58,137.02 for an average annual return of 9.20%, while an investor who panicked and sold their positions during this same period and missed the 10 best trading days in this period would have seen their return fall from 9.20% to 5.47%. [Source: Ned Davis Research]

The lesson is clear: No one can predict when the market will experience its best days.

2. Keep a Long-Term Focus

Studies show that time is your ally.   Of the three types of investments studied (stock funds, bond funds, and asset allocation investment options), the average investors in asset allocation funds held their investment options the longest (an average of 4.30 years) over the five time periods studied (1-, 3-, 5-, 10-, and 20-years).  It’s little surprise that these investors successfully weathered one of the most severe market declines in history (2000-2002). [Source: Dalbar 2010 QAIB study]

3. Have a Diversification Plan

According to the Dalbar study, investors guess incorrectly about the market’s direction 50% of the time.  So, diversification helps guard against those errors; but, many people mistake duplication for diversification by buying multiple mutual funds not knowing many of the underlying holdings are identical.

Choosing different management styles and market capitalizations of equities and bonds isn’t as simple as you’re lead to believe on television.  When was the last time you heard a financial entertainer the impact of highly correlated assets?   It’s boring stuff and makes for poor television, which is why it isn’t discussed, but it’s what you need to know.  Quality diversification enhances the benefits of asset allocation so investment balances are less affected by short-term market swings than they would be if you invested in a single asset class.

If you are an investor who is nearing retirement, consider consulting your advisor about this issue.  Remember, asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss, but it will likely make your journey much smoother.

4. Utilize an Auto-Rebalance Strategy

Historically, business cycle contractions last about one-sixth as long as expansions.  Now may be a good time to re-evaluate your risk tolerance. If you want a professionally managed investment option to handle this complicated task, you might want to consider a unified managed account (UMA).  It’s an option that simplifies your paperwork, virtually automates the rebalancing process, gives you consolidated reporting while providing the diversification of management, styles, and investments needed to do the job right.  UMAs can hold mutual funds, index funds, ETFs, institutional separately managed accounts, and more.  A UMA is not an investment; it’s a type of account you use to execute your investment plan.  Ask your advisor or – shameless plug – feel free to contact me for information about UMAs. 

There are also target-date and target-risk asset allocation funds available on the market; but, tread carefully.  Different funds with the same target date or target risk can still have very, very different holdings, styles, and risk profiles.  Not everyone retiring in the same year has the same financial picture or ideas about how they want to make the financial journey.  As you can tell, I’m not a big fan of ‘cookie-cutter’ solutions.

5. Keep Your Focus

Discipline is something everyone has until panic sets-in.  Quite often, that’s when an advisor can show the most value.   Successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint.  The tortoise did win the race, you know.

6. Get Regular Checkups

Too many individual investors are still stuck in the old paradigm under which their advisor, actually a broker, would call them with investment ideas or changes they should make.  Today, with the emergence of the fee-only – that’s different from fee-based – business model utilized by ‘pure’ Registered Investment Advisors (not dually registered to sell securities, too), the new paradigm operates more like other professional practices in law, medicine, or accounting.  In short, you need to make an appointment for your checkup, at least annually.   And, today, with online meeting technology, you can even do it without getting in your car… so there’s no excuse.   Get your checkup!  If you don’t, your financial health will likely suffer.

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Jim Lorenzen is a Certified Financial Planner® and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California.   IFG provides investment and fiduciary consulting to retirement plan sponsors, and retirement and wealth management services for individual investors. IFG does not sell products, earn commissions, or accept any third-party compensation or incentives of any description.  IFG also does not provide tax or legal advice.  The reader should seek competent counsel to address those issues.  Content contained herein represents the author’s opinion and should not be regarded as investment advice which is provided only to IFG clients upon completion of a written plan.  The Independent Financial You can reach Jim at 805.265.5416 or through the IFG website, www.indfin.com, Keep up to date with IFG on Twitter: @JimLorenzen