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Archive for the ‘Investor Mistakes’ Category

Market Guesswork Can Come Back to Haunt.

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

People have been wondering what the stock market will do since they first began trading under the buttonwood tree in lower Manhattan.

I read an article – one of a zillion such articles that always get multiple opinions from people who invariably prove they never had a clue to begin with – yesterday by Gil Weinreich, writing for AdvisorOne,  You can find a link to it on the IFG Facebook page; and this from the article caught my eye:

“The most recent Chicago Booth/Kellogg School Financial Trust Index indicates that 47% of the public expects the stock market to plunge in the next 12 weeks, according to Wharton professor Olivia Mitchell. Mitchell’s own portfolio has outperformed the stock market since 1999, when she put all her investments in Treasury inflation-protected securities. Her difficulty today, however, is figuring out what to do now that TIPS are paying negative returns.”

The professor put ALL her investments in TIPS.   Translation:  She was ‘timing the market’.  Not the stock market, but the bond market.  And, she’s got lucky.    But, there was a price.    Those who ride high on one side are often in danger of getting ‘whipsawed’ on the other.   

The market giveth and the market taketh away. 

The professor isn’t alone.  Many intelligent people – the same people who would never build a home without a blueprint, or launch a business without a well thought-out business plan – often make investment decisions and asset allocations based on an outlook, which means it’s virtually always without a long-term written investment plan.  It’s important to note there is NO professionally-written plan on earth, for a home, business, or investments, that would use only one material, or concentrate all risk into one sector.

Risk concentration isn’t a strategy.  It’s a guess.  It’s a hope.  Yet, too many Americans do it all the time.  It’s called ‘chasing returns’.

It doesn’t work.

It’s never worked.

Some point to past successes, similar to the example above; but, those always end-up being short-term.  When you calculate the returns over time – and one might argue the professor’s track record since ’99 isn’t exactly short-term – it’s also true that returns are now negative and her investment life isn’t over yet – and won’t be for many years to come.

Anyone who’s attended a large gathering of financial types knows the room is always filled with better-than-average investors; yet, few – although the number may be closer to ‘none’ – can even beat the indexes consistently.

It’s not about being brilliant; it’s about being smart.  Being smart really all about knowing what you don’t know… it’s about managing risk, not money… you just do it with money…. And market risk is only one of them.

Jim

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Jim Lorenzen is a Certified Financial Planner® and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California.  

The Independent Financial GroupAdditional IFG Links:

 

IFG does not sell products, earn commissions, or accept any third-party compensation or incentives of any description. Opinions expressed are those of the author.  IFG does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as  securities  or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader.  The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.  The Independent Financial Group does not sell financial products or securities and nothing contained herein is an offer or recommendation to purchase any security or the services of any person or organization.

Why don’t more people go to financial planners?

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Bob Clark, in a recent AdvisorOne article, says the answer is “fear.” Many people are afraid of:

• Being embarrassed by their current financial condition

• learning their financial situation is much worse than they realized

• of getting beat up for not saving more

• of being told to do things they don’t want to do, such as going on a budget, saving more, or buying more insurance.

He’s probably right.  The old adage WIIFM (What’s in it for me) maybe best answers what people really want:  How to get their financial house in order and keep it that way forever; how to achieve their goals with peace of mind; how to minimize risk; how to feel good about what their future!

Jim

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The Independent Financial GroupJim Lorenzen is a Certified Financial Planner® and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California.   IFG provides investment and fiduciary consulting to retirement plan sponsors, and retirement and wealth management services for individual investors. IFG does not sell products, earn commissions, or accept any third-party compensation or incentives of any description.  IFG also does not provide tax or legal advice.  The reader should seek competent counsel to address those issues.  Content contained herein represents the author’s opinion and should not be regarded as investment advice which is provided only to IFG clients upon completion of a written plan.  The Independent Financial You can reach Jim at 805.265.5416 or through the IFG website, www.indfin.com, the IFG Investment Blog and by subscribing to IFG Insights lettersfor individual investors.  Keep up to date with IFG on Twitter: @JimLorenzen

Scattered Assets Can Be More Than Risky

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

They can be expensive, too!

What are scattered assets?  Many people have multiple investment accounts, often with multiple brokerages and or mutual fund companies.  There are even those who have multiple institutional managers in separately managed accounts.

And, all this is in the name of diversification.  I just wrote about this in our ezine which you can find on the IFG Insights Archive.  But, here’s an overview:

Problem is, most of these people aren’t diversified at all?  In fact, rather than reducing risk, they may actually be increasing it! 

There are three issues at play – issues many often ignore:

  • Duplication is not diversification.   But, there’s more:  Few people realize that you can’t really diversify-away market risk.  Think about it: If you bought stocks in the ENTIRE stock market, you’d only be replicating market risk, not eliminating it.
  • Mutual funds contain hidden taxes.  Sure, most people know that; but, what they may not know is this:  They don’t own the underlying fund holdings; they are shareholders of the investment company and as such they share in the fund’s capital gains.  If the fund sold a stock they bought ages ago at a low price and now has large unrealized gains; the shareholder will share in ALL of those gains, even if the stock is sold just after the investor bought-in!
  • Tax inefficiency.   This happens when there are multiple managers, even if one of them is the client, in addition, buying securities in his own online account.  The duplication mentioned above can result in some real costs that can far outweigh any perceived savings.  Again, you’ll find a detailed example in this morning’s IFG Insights, which you can find in our archive.

Like Warren Buffet once said, if you think investing is fun, the odds are great you’re doing something very wrong.

Enjoy!

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IFG BlogJim Lorenzen is a Certified Financial Planner® and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California.   IFG provides investment and fiduciary consulting to retirement plan sponsors, and retirement and wealth management services for individual investors. IFG does not sell products, earn commissions, or accept any third-party compensation or incentives of any description.  IFG also does not provide tax or legal advice.  The reader should seek competent counsel to address those issues.  Content contained herein represents the author’s opinion and should not be regarded as investment advice which is provided only to IFG clients upon completion of a written plan.  The Independent Financial You can reach Jim at 805.265.5416 or through the IFG website, www.indfin.com, and by subscribing to IFG Insights letters  for  individual investors.  Keep up to date with IFG on Twitter: @JimLorenzen

Written by Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

October 9, 2012 at 7:45 am

Abnormal Markets – Abnormal Times

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

When the Fed announced an open-ended QE3, the stock market rallied.  In fact, the market’s been trending up since 2009 after the meltdown when all the government spending began.  But, was that good?  Have those stock gains been real?

Since the meltdown, people have been chasing returns whereever they could find them, whether it was with high dividend-paying stocks or  buying gold – a demand largely fueled by all those tv commercials.

The financial industry, of course, has responded to both fear and greed by packaging yet another series of products, some of which come with either high or hidden costs… and sometimes both.

The question, of course, is whether all these “black box” solutions are really the answer… or whether the ‘basics’ are still relevant.

After all, companies that declare dividends are adjusting the price of the stock downward to compensate – you could arguably simply buy growth stocks that don’t pay dividends and simply sell what you need for income and still arrive at the same result! 

And, while gold has increased in value – in terms of the numbers of pictures of presidents you receive for each ounce – have you really received more value when adjusted for inflation?  Some say ‘yes’ but a J.P. Morgan study says something else.

We have more about this in our IFG Insights E-zine, which is appeared earlier this morning and is available in our archive.

It’s my guess much of the increase we’ve seen in virtually all equity categories, have been more nominal than real and are driven by the growth of debt.

We’ll see, won’t we?

Jim

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Jim Lorenzen is a Certified Financial Planner® and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California.  

Additional IFG Links:

IFG does not sell products, earn commissions, or accept any third-party compensation or incentives of any description.  IFG does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as  securities  or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader.  The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.  The Independent Financial Group does not sell financial products or securities and nothing contained herein is an offer or recommendation to purchase any security or the services of any person or organization. 

 

Three Retirement Rollover Mistakes to Avoid

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

IFG BlogPlanning to retire?  Contemplating a rollover?  Here are three ways NOT to do it.

1. Get a check from the company

Of course, this is just foolish. The company must withhold 20% from the payment, so that a person with a $100,000 account will have $20,000 withheld, and will receive a check for $80,000. In order to complete a tax-free rollover, the taxpayer must deposit that $80,000 in an IRA plus $20,000 from their pocket to complete a tax-free $100,000 rollover.

The taxpayer may eventually get the $20,000 withheld as a tax refund the following year, but that will not help their cash flow, as they need to complete their IRA rollover within 60 days of receiving the check from their qualified plan.

The bottom line is that people should never touch their qualified funds. The only sensible way to move funds is a direct transfer from the qualified plan to the IRA custodian and avoid withholding.

2. Rollover company stock

Shares of employer stock get special tax treatment, and in many cases, it may be fine to ignore this special status and roll the shares to an IRA. This would be true when the amount of employer stock is small, or the basis of the shares is high relative to the current market value.

However, in the case of large amounts of shares or low basis, it would be a very costly mistake not to use the Net Unrealized Appreciation (NUA) Rules.[1]

If your company retirement account includes highly appreciated company stock, an option is to withdraw the stock, pay tax on it now, and roll the balance of the plan assets to an IRA. This way you will pay no current tax on the Net Unrealized Appreciation (NUA), or on the amount rolled over to the IRA. The only tax you pay now would be on the cost of the stock (the basis) when acquired by the plan.

If you withdraw the stock and are under 55 years old, you have to pay a 10% penalty (the penalty is only applied to the amount that is taxable).

IRA owners can then defer the tax on the NUA until they sell the stock. When you do sell, you will only pay tax at the current capital gains rate. To qualify for the tax deferral on NUA, the distribution must be a lump-sum distribution, meaning that all of the employer’s stock in your plan account must be distributed.

3. Rollover after-tax dollars

Sometimes, qualified plan accounts contain after-tax dollars. At the time of rollover, it is preferable to remove these after-tax dollars, and not roll them to an IRA. That way, if the account owner chooses to use the after-tax dollars, he will have total liquidity to do so.

You can take out all of the after-tax contributions, tax-free, before rolling the qualified plan dollars to an IRA. You also have the option to rollover pre-tax and after-tax funds from a qualified plan to an IRA and allow all the money to continue to grow tax-deferred.

The big question is, “will you need the money soon?” If so, it probably will not pay to rollover the after-tax money to an IRA, because once you roll over after-tax money to an IRA, you cannot withdraw it tax-free. The after-tax funds become part of the IRA, and any withdrawals from the IRA are subject to the “Pro Rata Rule.”

The Pro Rata Rule requires that each distribution from an IRA contain a proportionate amount of both the taxable and non-taxable amounts in the account. The non-taxable amounts are called “basis.” In an IRA, the basis is the amount of non-deductible contributions made to the IRA.

————–Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

This Guide is an excerpt from Six Best and Worst Rollover Decisions by Jim Lorenzen. 

Jim Lorenzen is a Certified Financial Planner® and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California.   IFG provides investment and fiduciary consulting to retirement plan sponsors, and retirement and wealth management services for individual investors. IFG does not sell products, earn commissions, or accept any third-party compensation or incentives of any description.  IFG also does not provide tax or legal advice.  The reader should seek competent counsel to address those issues.  Content contained herein represents the author’s opinion and should not be regarded as investment advice which is provided only to IFG clients upon completion of a written plan.  The Independent Financial You can reach Jim at 805.265.5416 or through the IFG website, www.indfin.com, the IFG Investment Blog and by subscribing to IFG Insights letters for corporate plan sponsors and individual investors.  Keep up to date with IFG on Twitter: @JimLorenzen


[1]IRS Publication 575

Written by Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

June 28, 2012 at 8:00 am

Does Market Avoidance Really Work?

IFG BlogWe’ve been in choppy times since 2008.  Many people feel the markets are ‘uncertain’ and have been avoiding the markets until they “see what the market will do”.  It’s an old mantra I remember hearing when I began in this business more than twenty years ago.  The markets were uncertain then, too.  Problem is, markets are always uncertain. 

Has avoidance worked?  Not likely.  Investors who wait until they feel good about the markets are, by definition, waiting until the market has gone up – they buy ‘high’, which means they usually are overpaying, rather than underpaying, for their investments.

Investors who have self-discipline, or lucky enough to be in auto-enrollment, automatic increase company retirement plans, have probably done a little better.

Let’s use a little hypothetical mathematical exercise to illustrate the point.  Let’s compare two investors: 

One has $20,000 in a retirement plan but stops investing just as the market starts to go down…. And won’t invest again until the market ‘comes back’. 

The other investor who has NO money in a retirement plan, but actually starts investing when everyone else is freezing up! 

Now let’s assume a market that starts going down and takes six years to realize a 30% loss, then ten years just to get back to even. 

Both investors end-up with the same amount invested in the same market, represented with a starting price of 50.

Who won?

Hmmm.  Maybe buying ‘on the cheap’ is good, ya’ think?

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Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®Jim Lorenzen is a Certified Financial Planner® and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California.   IFG provides investment and fiduciary consulting to retirement plan sponsors, and retirement and wealth management services for individual investors.

Additional IFG Links:

IFG does not sell products, earn commissions, or accept any third-party compensation or incentives of any description.  IFG does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as  securities  or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader.  The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.  The Independent Financial Group does not sell financial products or securities and nothing contained herein is an offer or recommendation to purchase any security or the services of any person or organization. 

 

Written by Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

June 21, 2012 at 8:00 am

Underperform the Market and STILL Beat It?

The Independent Financial GroupJim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

What?  Never beat the market and STILL end-up outperforming it? 

Could that be possible?

If you watch enough tv or read enough articles, blogs, newsletters and e-letters, you’ll soon easily conclude that the two most important investment concepts seem to revolve around one of two basic concepts: Outperforming the market and/or limiting expenses.

What if they’re both wrong?

While I’ve never promoted the idea of trying to outperform the market, I have often talked about controlling expenses.  After all, it’s logical, isn’t it?   Any money you save on expenses goes into your pocket!   Not rocket science.

But, what if I’ve been wrong, too?

What if we’ve all been looking at the wrong things?

What if all the financial advisors – the ones who’ve been talking about managing risk and limiting the downside – actually have been telling everyone the little-known secret:  It’s maybe about limiting `downside capture’!

Let’s take an example and, just too keep our comparison of performance outcomes `apples to apples’, we’ll make all expenses equal at zero.

The following hypothetical example reflects a fictional market return showing 20% swings each year over a ten year period and what would have happened to Portfolio A, which invested $100,000 in ‘the market’.  As you can see, even though 6 of the 10 years were ‘up’ years, including both the first and last year, and even though 3 of the last 4 years were ‘up’ years, the market portfolio achieved an annualized return of only 2.12% and a gain of only $22,306. 

What’s interesting is what happened in portfolio B!    Portfolio B’s management emphasis was not on beating the market.  In fact, during the ‘up years’ it underperformed the market by 20% each time!   But, while the managers captured only 80% of the upside, they were successful in capturing only 70% of the downside.    How important was limiting the downside?   Take a look!

Interesting!   Now this is a hypothetical mathematical excercise, to be sure; but, it does illustrate the importance of managing risk and how unimportant ‘beating the index’ actually is!   It also demonstrates another important principle:  While it’s important to limit expenses, you don’t want to get caught in a ‘race to the bottom’.  Managers who know how to ‘optimize’ portfolio performance just might be worth what they’re paid.

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Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®Jim Lorenzen is a Certified Financial Planner® and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California.  IFG provides investment and fiduciary consulting to retirement plan sponsors and selected individual investors.  IFG does not sell products, earn commissions, or accept any third-party compensation or incentives of any description.  Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader.  The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional. 

Additional IFG Links:

IFG does not sell products, earn commissions, or accept any third-party compensation or incentives of any description.  IFG does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as  securities  or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader.  The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.  The Independent Financial Group does not sell financial products or securities and nothing contained herein is an offer or recommendation to purchase any security or the services of any person or organization.